The contenders, from left, Mary Aldred (Liberal), Russell Broadbent (Independent), Tully Fletcher (Labor), Deb Leonard (independent)
By Michael Whelan
THE electoral race for Monash is shaping as a fascinating battle with two strong independent candidates a chance to tip one of the majors out of the final count on election night, resulting in a run-off between the Liberal and an independent.
The Independent Deb Leonard made an impact at the last election. Until then the Liberal vote had been safely above 40% since 2004. In 2022 it dropped to 36%. Less comfortable, but not in the zone for an independent win with Labor’s vote holding at above 25%.
THE electoral race for Monash is shaping as a fascinating battle with two strong independent candidates a chance to tip one of the majors out of the final count on election night, resulting in a run-off between the Liberal and an independent.
The Independent Deb Leonard made an impact at the last election. Until then the Liberal vote had been safely above 40% since 2004. In 2022 it dropped to 36%. Less comfortable, but not in the zone for an independent win with Labor’s vote holding at above 25%.
2022 election for Monash. Source: Australian Electoral Commission
The early poll indications are that the Labor vote has tanked this time while the Liberal vote has dropped to well within the zone where it can picked off by an independent. There is much speculation on a backlash against the State Labor Government. The question is whether this will hold as the campaigns unfold and the focus shifts to federal rather than state issues.
The contest in this seat will be strongly influenced by local political nous as well as the usual slick major party campaigns and the national battle between the leaders. This is a seat decided by preferences and will be won by the candidate who has secured the preference support of those minor candidates who will be eliminated as the count proceeds.
The contest in this seat will be strongly influenced by local political nous as well as the usual slick major party campaigns and the national battle between the leaders. This is a seat decided by preferences and will be won by the candidate who has secured the preference support of those minor candidates who will be eliminated as the count proceeds.
Preferences with the minor parties will decide the contest. From left, Kuljeet Kuar Robinson (One Nation), Geoff Dethlefs (Family First), David O'Reilly, (Legalise Cannabis Party), Terence Steele (Greens) and Alex Wehbe (Trumpet of Patriots)
Russell Broadbent is recontesting the seat that he has held for 23 years, until recently as the endorsed Liberal candidate but now as an independent after failing to secure party endorsement. He is an experienced and well-connected campaigner who understands the numbers game of securing a seat through the preference system.
Deb Leonard, despite contesting the seat for the second time as a community independent, is a relative newcomer to politics. Partly funded by the Climate 200 Group she has mobilised a strong community support base raising significant funds and has so far run a well-resourced campaign.
Deb Leonard, despite contesting the seat for the second time as a community independent, is a relative newcomer to politics. Partly funded by the Climate 200 Group she has mobilised a strong community support base raising significant funds and has so far run a well-resourced campaign.
The usual major party candidates are in the field. The Liberals’ Mary Aldred has been out and about on the campaign trail for many months while Labor has only recently completed its preselection of Tully Fletcher. The National Party flirted with the idea of running a candidate then dropped it.
The Monash electorate, formerly McMillan, had a history of change in the period 1980 to 2004 when it flipped between Labor and Liberal but has been stable in recent times. In 2004, a redistribution turned it from marginal Labor to marginal Liberal and Russell Broadbent won it back for the Liberal Party. Since then, he appears to have made it his own, having served a total of 23 years in the seat since 1998.
In the last round of preselection the Liberal machine dumped Broadbent in favour of a younger and female candidate Mary Aldred. It appears they did this without paving the way to achieve Broadbent’s agreement. Aldred advised toward the end of last year that she did not expect Broadbent to stand.
The mistake could prove costly. Broadbent, a long-serving Liberal and well-known local member, is now conducting a strong campaign as an independent and is a good chance to be in the final mix.
Indications so far suggest Broadbent is holding a significant vote at the expense of the Liberal candidate and that the Independent Leonard is holding a significant vote at the expense of Labor. Collectively the independents would have enough clout to roll the Liberal candidate but they probably need each other’s preferences to get up.
There is a logic to the independents preferencing each other, pushing back on the big party dominance from Melbourne and Canberra. However, the release of Broadbent’s How to Vote card reveals he has put his fellow independent second last on his ticket. It is understood Leonard is not putting out a How to Vote card, leaving the decision on preferences to her supporters.
It will probably come down to who has stitched up the preferences that will be crucial to deciding a cliffhanger contest in Monash.
The Monash electorate, formerly McMillan, had a history of change in the period 1980 to 2004 when it flipped between Labor and Liberal but has been stable in recent times. In 2004, a redistribution turned it from marginal Labor to marginal Liberal and Russell Broadbent won it back for the Liberal Party. Since then, he appears to have made it his own, having served a total of 23 years in the seat since 1998.
In the last round of preselection the Liberal machine dumped Broadbent in favour of a younger and female candidate Mary Aldred. It appears they did this without paving the way to achieve Broadbent’s agreement. Aldred advised toward the end of last year that she did not expect Broadbent to stand.
The mistake could prove costly. Broadbent, a long-serving Liberal and well-known local member, is now conducting a strong campaign as an independent and is a good chance to be in the final mix.
Indications so far suggest Broadbent is holding a significant vote at the expense of the Liberal candidate and that the Independent Leonard is holding a significant vote at the expense of Labor. Collectively the independents would have enough clout to roll the Liberal candidate but they probably need each other’s preferences to get up.
There is a logic to the independents preferencing each other, pushing back on the big party dominance from Melbourne and Canberra. However, the release of Broadbent’s How to Vote card reveals he has put his fellow independent second last on his ticket. It is understood Leonard is not putting out a How to Vote card, leaving the decision on preferences to her supporters.
It will probably come down to who has stitched up the preferences that will be crucial to deciding a cliffhanger contest in Monash.
How the preferences flowed in the 2022 Monash election. Source: Australian Electoral Commission