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By Catherine Watson

​AFTER an election full of twists and turns, the battle for the seat of Monash appears headed for a traditional shootout between the major parties.

A week after the election, the Australian Electoral Commission has completed a three-party preferred count, with the Liberal Party's Mary Aldred on 46.3 per cent, close to the magical 50 per cent.

Labor’s Tully Fletcher is on 27.3 per cent, a long way behind, but importantly almost 1000 votes ahead of independent Deb Leonard on 26.3 per cent.
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Source: Australian Electoral Commission

If Leonard is eliminated, her primary voters (16,550) would be expected to strongly favour Fletcher but 8000+ preferences from other candidates would need to be redistributed with uncertain results. It could come down to which major party these voters disliked least. 
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Postal votes are still trickling in – they must be received by the AEC no later than 13 days after election day. So far they have been strongly favouring Aldred. 
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