 Mary Aldred, Liberal |  Tully Fletcher, Labor |  Deb Leonard, Independent |  Russell Broadbent, Independent |
By Catherine Watson
FOUR days after the election and there is still no result for the Monash electorate and no indication of how the preferences are flowing.
The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) now lists Monash as one of four seats for which less than 15% of the Two Candidate Preferred (TCP) has been counted.
At midday on Wednesday, Liberal Mary Aldred remains the clear front runner with 32.34 per cent of the vote. The ALP’s Tully Fletcher is next with 20.29 per cent and independent is in third place on 17.34 per cent.
FOUR days after the election and there is still no result for the Monash electorate and no indication of how the preferences are flowing.
The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) now lists Monash as one of four seats for which less than 15% of the Two Candidate Preferred (TCP) has been counted.
At midday on Wednesday, Liberal Mary Aldred remains the clear front runner with 32.34 per cent of the vote. The ALP’s Tully Fletcher is next with 20.29 per cent and independent is in third place on 17.34 per cent.
Primary votes, May 7. Source: Australian Electoral Commission
On Saturday night the AEC began a two-candidate preferred count of the Liberal and Labor candidates. They have now switched to a three-candidate count including Leonard.
Amateur psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham has outlined some interesting prospects on his blog page in which he reckons that if the seat finishes as a Liberal vs Labor contest Aldred will win. However, if it’s Aldred vs Leonard, Leonard has a chance if a significant proportion of the minor right wing party preferences leak to her.
The Greens, Labor and the Legalise Cannabis Party all preferenced Leonard second and Trumpet of Patriots has put the two major parties last.
Independent Russell Broadbent, with 10 per cent of the vote, has preferenced Aldred ahead of Fletcher and Leonard. However, Bonham points out that it’s hard to predict the behaviour of voters who voted for the former Liberal MP.
Early Wednesday, according to a partial AEC 3CP count, Leonard was narrowly in the final two.
If you’re an election tragic, keep an eye on Kevin’s blog. He’s updating his page as his inside sources inform him!
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/05/2025-house-of-reps-postcount-monash.html