 Independent Deb Leonard: came close to an upset |  Independent Russell Broadbent: one too many elections |  One Nation's Kuljeet Robinson: outscored the Greens |
By Michael Whelan
WELL, the Monash election did not disappoint, being described by one analyst as ‘weird’. The presence of two strong independents complicated the count. The result flatters Liberal Mary Aldred with 54.3% of the two party preferred vote and a positive swing of 1.4%, against the national trend.
Both Labour and Liberal had primary swings against them of over 5%. A shift of just over 500 votes from Labor to the Independent Leonard would have seen the Independent run off against Liberal with the strong chance of an Independent win. Leonard may rue not taking a preference swap with Broadbent when the chance presented.
WELL, the Monash election did not disappoint, being described by one analyst as ‘weird’. The presence of two strong independents complicated the count. The result flatters Liberal Mary Aldred with 54.3% of the two party preferred vote and a positive swing of 1.4%, against the national trend.
Both Labour and Liberal had primary swings against them of over 5%. A shift of just over 500 votes from Labor to the Independent Leonard would have seen the Independent run off against Liberal with the strong chance of an Independent win. Leonard may rue not taking a preference swap with Broadbent when the chance presented.
As speculated, the election result shifted dramatically from a State Government fug of animosity, reflected in very low polling results, to the federal sphere, where Liberal leader Peter Dutton presented as out of his depth and unprepared, with little policy offering. Anthony Albanese’s campaign effort was masterful. With just under 35% of the national vote, he has managed to secure a historically high Labor representation in Parliament.
It's interesting to note the major party first preference votes account for just 52% of the vote in Monash, with strong independent support at over 27%. In an earlier election article A Tight Race in Monash, I mentioned that a redistribution in 2004 turned the seat of McMillan from marginal Labor to a marginal Liberal. Russell Broadbent has made it his own since then with very healthy first preference positions and a clear win in 2013 with 50.36% of the primary vote.
The following table shows the drift of the major parties and the emergence of other interest groups. It would be timely to add that the One Nation has secured over 7% of the vote at this election.
It's interesting to note the major party first preference votes account for just 52% of the vote in Monash, with strong independent support at over 27%. In an earlier election article A Tight Race in Monash, I mentioned that a redistribution in 2004 turned the seat of McMillan from marginal Labor to a marginal Liberal. Russell Broadbent has made it his own since then with very healthy first preference positions and a clear win in 2013 with 50.36% of the primary vote.
The following table shows the drift of the major parties and the emergence of other interest groups. It would be timely to add that the One Nation has secured over 7% of the vote at this election.
The number of 3 Candidate Preferred counts across Australia reveals a new dynamic. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over future elections.
The declining vote for the major parties brings into question two issues that influence the outcome of elections: how the major parties are stacking electoral funding in their own favour; and the use of government resources for incumbent members, putting challengers from outside the major parties at a severe disadvantage.
The election sees our local member of 23 years Russell Broadbent slide off into retirement. He had a successful career in politics, making a national cameo appearance on issues of principle here and there, but without spanning the highs of a ministerial role. Probably his biggest mistake was pushing back on the party that had supported him throughout his political career to run as an independent.
It is worth noting the collapse of the Greens vote in Monash from a high of 9.6% in 2022 to a miserable 4.6%. There was early speculation that many Greens voters had moved over to the Leonard camp. Perhaps it’s also a result of the party failing to secure a candidate who actually lives in the electorate and the absence of any discussion on climate and environmental issues, especially given the failure of the Albanese Government to land a federal Environment Protection Authority and promised environmental legislative reforms.
In the last article I indicated the result of a fascinating election in Monash would come down to who had stitched up the deals with other candidates. The craft of politics is getting enough preferences to cross the line.
Once the Three Candidate Preferred process concluded with Labor just over 1000 votes ahead of the independent, it fell back to the usual run off between the major party candidates with a predictable finish.
The final result doesn’t really show how close Leonard came to an upset.
The declining vote for the major parties brings into question two issues that influence the outcome of elections: how the major parties are stacking electoral funding in their own favour; and the use of government resources for incumbent members, putting challengers from outside the major parties at a severe disadvantage.
The election sees our local member of 23 years Russell Broadbent slide off into retirement. He had a successful career in politics, making a national cameo appearance on issues of principle here and there, but without spanning the highs of a ministerial role. Probably his biggest mistake was pushing back on the party that had supported him throughout his political career to run as an independent.
It is worth noting the collapse of the Greens vote in Monash from a high of 9.6% in 2022 to a miserable 4.6%. There was early speculation that many Greens voters had moved over to the Leonard camp. Perhaps it’s also a result of the party failing to secure a candidate who actually lives in the electorate and the absence of any discussion on climate and environmental issues, especially given the failure of the Albanese Government to land a federal Environment Protection Authority and promised environmental legislative reforms.
In the last article I indicated the result of a fascinating election in Monash would come down to who had stitched up the deals with other candidates. The craft of politics is getting enough preferences to cross the line.
Once the Three Candidate Preferred process concluded with Labor just over 1000 votes ahead of the independent, it fell back to the usual run off between the major party candidates with a predictable finish.
The final result doesn’t really show how close Leonard came to an upset.