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Broadbent survives national swing

22/5/2022

5 Comments

 
PictureRussell Broadbent will represent Monash from the
Opposition benches. Photo: Geoff Ellis
By Catherine Watson
 
VETERAN MP Russell Broadbent has survived a national swing against the Liberal Party but the Monash electorate is now officially a marginal seat.
 
After counting of prepoll and election day votes and preferences, Mr Broadbent had a 2.41 per cent lead over his ALP challenger Jessica O’Donnell, down from 6.9 per cent in 2019.
 
Postal votes are still to be counted but tend to favour the Liberal Party and are not expected to change the result in Monash.

Aged 72, Mr Broadbent 
has held the seat (formerly McMillan) for 23 of the past 32 years. He survived a fierce election campaign that cost many of his much younger Liberal Party colleagues their political careers. 

There was an 8.73 swing against him in his primary vote, but the swing dropped to 4.49% after preferences were distributed.
 
Ms O’Donnell also suffered a swing of 3.85% in her primary vote compared with the 2019 election, probably due to the presence of Independent Deb Leonard, who secured a creditable 11.1 per cent of the vote.
 
Supported by the local group Voices for Monash, Ms Leonard did not direct preferences. There were indications from other prepolling centres that this may have caused confusion among voters and an increase in informal (invalid) votes.
 
Mat Morgan took the Greens’ vote to 9.57%, a 2.4% swing.
 
Almost half of all Monash voters cast their votes at five major prepoll centres before election day and they told the story of a very large electorate with very different issues and interests. ​
Picture
Voting at Monash electorate prepoll centres
Mr Broadbent polled highest in Warragul (42.42 per cent) and lowest in Moe (33.93%). The Greens’ Mat Morgan polled highest in Wonthaggi (11.25%) and lowest in Moe (5.95%).
 
The ALP’s Jessica Morgan got 33.91% of primary votes in Moe and just 22.78% in Cowes.
 
The low Cowes vote for the ALP could probably be explained by the very high vote for local Independent Deb Leonard who got 23.6 per cent of the votes. Her vote fell away sharply off the island with just 5.95% in Moe and 8.12% in Morwell.
 
Leongatha didn’t have a prepolling centre but recorded an exceptionally high Liberal vote on polling day, with 47.57 % voting for the incumbent Russell Broadbent. 

Bass Coast polling centres

​Of the Bass Coast polling booths, the strongest support for the Liberal Party came from San Remo (40.94%) and Bass (39.62%). The lowest was Wonthaggi (23.07% and Cape Paterson (25.01).
 
Cape Paterson was the Greenest with 23.01% of voters choosing Mat Morgan, who has strong links to the area, followed by Dalyston (21.25%) and Wonthaggi (16.18%).
 
Independent Deb Leonard scored well on the island (Newhaven 26.05%, Cowes 22.67%, Rhyll 20.83) and across the bridge (San Remo 21.65%). She also had support in Cape Paterson (15.07%) but didn’t make as much impression in the other Bass Coast booths.     
 
Of the minor parties, One Nation scored highest in Wonthaggi (8.45%), Corinella (7.94%) and Wonthaggi North (7.14%) and lowest in San Remo (1.77%).
The United Australia Party was strongest in Bass (8.63%) and Wonthaggi (7.13%) and lowest in Cape Paterson (2.19%). 

5 Comments
Pete Granger
22/5/2022 11:44:02 am

Fascinating analysis Catherine. We sure are political potpourri

Reply
Kay
22/5/2022 12:27:39 pm

Congratulations to Russell. Interesting outcome due to change of electoral area and change of residents, especially all the sea changers from the city during the last 2 years.

Reply
Daryl Hook
22/5/2022 02:40:59 pm

Thanks for the great analysis on the election.Facinating to read about the differences between voting centres .

Reply
Alison Vincent
23/5/2022 01:05:59 pm

With approximately 1/3 of overall primary votes going to each of Labor, Liberal and independents, I think we are in for a very interesting parliament.

Reply
ian Samuel
23/5/2022 05:33:22 pm

Surviving the protest vote is a warning that Coalition policies are no longer meeting community expectations and there is a need to listen to the community with an open mind.

Reply



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