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By Catherine Watson
 
LABOR’S Jordan Crugnale has a narrow lead in the battle to retain her position as MP for Bass.
 
A 2.03% swing to the Liberal Party in Bass – against the statewide trend – fell just short. As of Sunday morning, Ms Crugnale has 15,995 votes (50.36%), just 225 ahead of the Liberal Party’s Aaron Brown on 15,730 (49.64%).
 
With such a small margin, the result is provisional with votes to be rechecked and absent votes and some postal votes still to be counted. After a disastrous statewide result, the Liberal Party will be extra keen to secure a consolation prize by regaining the traditionally Liberal seat.
Both Labor and Liberal recorded a sharp drop in primary vote from the 2018 election. Labor secured 32.92% of first preferences, down from 40.24% in 2018, while Liberal secured just 28.95%, a 12% drop from the 40.97% it received in 2018.
 
Most of this went to the National Party’s Brett Tessari, who secured 15.23% of the total.
 
This is only the second time the National Party has stood a candidate in the seat and there was uncertainty about how the presence of two Coalition candidates would affect the flow of votes.
 
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The Nationals would have been hoping to make a bigger impact but the popularity of the local candidate, a three-time Bass Coast mayor, could not make up for the lack of brand recognition of the party in the Bass electorate.
 
In line with the statewide vote, Greens candidate Callum Bugbird recorded a swing of 2.22%, taking the party’s local vote to 7.91%.
 
The two independent candidates did not make much impact – community independent Jeni Jobe got 2.68% and conservative independent Meg Edwards, who stood in protest again the Labor Government’s plans for offshore wind farms off the Gippsland Coast, got 2.32%.
 
Of the minor parties, Labour DLP did best with 3.18%, followed by Family First with 2.49%, the Animal Justice Party with 2.36% and the Freedom Party with 1.97%.
 
Bass is an electorate of two halves, with the southern part encompassing the whole of the Bass Coast Shire and the northern part taking in rural villages and the outer suburban Cranbourne South and the disparity was obvious in the booth results.
 
The rural booths of Bass, Bayles, Blind Bight, Catani, Devon Meadows, Koo Wee Rup, Lang Lang and Tooradin were strongly pro-Liberal.
 
The Bass Coast booths of Cowes, Wonthaggi, Wonthaggi North, Inverloch, Newhaven, Corinella and Cape Paterson were strongly pro-Labor.
 
Labor did well with the early votes (8057 to the Liberal Party’s 7340) but postal votes heavily favoured the Liberal Party.  Around 5% of votes were invalid.
Two party preferred by voting booth
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19 Comments
Stephen Wilbourne - 3 years ago
Thank you for your excellent local pre-poll and post-poll coverage. It is greatly appreciated.
Brian Carr - 3 years ago
Great news, Jordan has done so much for the area for a long time, not just during the election campaign.
Lyn Bennett - 3 years ago
I don’t think this is a true representation of the informal votes - too many booths ran out of ballot papers and would be voters were told that their names would be checked off and they did not have to vote and would not be fined. The dedicated voter travelled to others booths but how many just went home?
With such a tight outcome this is very disturbing. Not good enough VEC.
Brian Carr - 3 years ago
That's such a bad oversight, surely it's better to oversupply ? it's only sheets of paper after all, and the whole reason of holding the ballot is to determine the voting intentions of all possible electors.
Mike Tesch - 3 years ago
Thanks for your optimism, but these are figures from last night. With only 67% of the votes counted, it is still too close to close. I'm waiting for more informed sources to give it to Jordan before I celebrate.
Catherine Watson, editor - 3 years ago
You're absolutely right, Mike. The ABC called it last night - Labor retains Bass - but looking at it again it's obviously premature. I've reworded to a more cautious approach. Could be a couple of days before we know.
What an election! We knew it would be close but who would have predicted this.
Pete Muskens - 3 years ago
Yes - what a result indeed. Jordan’s done well to retain those votes. I just hope she takes to heart the planning and environmental issues that are close to many Bass Coast residents’ hearts. The outlook is still not good for the woodlands or Cape Paterson.
Sue Saliba - 3 years ago
If Jordan does get across the line, I hope she acknowledges that she would not have a seat in Parliament without the preferences from the Greens, AJP and a local independent, all of whom strongly support full protection of Western Port Woodlands.
Sue C - 3 years ago
I agree Sue. The Greens are still not taken seriously by the 2 major parties. But if Jordan wins the seat it will be because of the Green vote and its policies of caring for the environment, the wildlife and social justice.Bass Coast is becoming urbanised too quickly. The destruction of our vegetation is occurring daily, hence our precious wildlife and endangered species is disappearing far too rapidly. If Jordan gets back in, it would be to her advantage to listen and take seriously our concerns about environmental vandalism occurring daily. Well done Callum.
Mark Robertson - 3 years ago
Well said Sue, as always, concerned with the future of our threatened ecosystems.
Geoff Ellis - 3 years ago
This morning ABC radio reported that Bass District was too close call.
Meg Edwards - 3 years ago
Bass was always down to preferences. Well done everyone for having the courage to stand.
Shaz Green - 3 years ago
Interested to note the “ A 2.03% swing to the Liberal Party in Bass” statement without any commentary regarding the redistributed boundaries that many expected would make this an LNP seat.
Natasha - 3 years ago
Wow. Very exciting! This morning - Monday - ABC radio reported that Bass District was too close to call. There are still a lot of votes to be counted and with it being so close, many factors are to be carefully considered. The front heading should be reworded as it’s inaccurate.
Yvonne McRae - 3 years ago
Fingers crossed for Jordan, still too close to call. But if re-elected Jordan must be more upfront and outspoken re the environment, especially the sand mining, woodlands destruction, pollution of our oceans (gas drilling etc.), and protection of our unique species. The Little Penguins fish in the waters the big gas corporations are targeting, and of course the import tankers into Westernport Bay. Homo sapiens seem determined to ruin our planet for future generations. There is no Planet B.
Keith Finney - 3 years ago
I'm confused. According to VEC figures, and reading the commentary above, it suggests over 30% of the eligible Bass Coast population was either prevented from voting (as in my case) or chose not to vote. Is anyone able to find out the number of "excused voters"? I have been expecting to see the number of votes counted increase for many days - is any counting going on?
Frank W Schooneveldt - 3 years ago
Hi Keith,
Counting of the votes is continuing. VEC reported at 9.14pm last night that 70.77% of the votes have been counted with the gap between Jordan and Aron narrowed to 53 votes. I hope Jordan wins but it’s in the lap of the gods. I expect a final result by Friday.
Cheers
Catherine Watson, Editor - 3 years ago
According to the VEC, there's a way to go yet: "A result in close seats will not be known until preference distributions are conducted from next Tuesday 6 December. This is because all eligible votes must be admitted to the count first, and rechecked. Postal votes posted before the close of voting can be received up until 6 pm Friday 2 December."
Keith Finney - 3 years ago
So - to be clear - the change in two party preferred votes last night is is only as a result of votes directly placed to one of the two main canditates.

By my, rough, calculations Libs have been getting approximately 54% of the preferences, so if they get ahead, or even tie, on remaining votes Aaron Brown will win.