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Crugnale holds on

27/11/2022

19 Comments

 
PictureBass MP Jordan Crugnale
By Catherine Watson
 
LABOR’S Jordan Crugnale has a narrow lead in the battle to retain her position as MP for Bass.
 
A 2.03% swing to the Liberal Party in Bass – against the statewide trend – fell just short. As of Sunday morning, Ms Crugnale has 15,995 votes (50.36%), just 225 ahead of the Liberal Party’s Aaron Brown on 15,730 (49.64%).
 
With such a small margin, the result is provisional with votes to be rechecked and absent votes and some postal votes still to be counted. After a disastrous statewide result, the Liberal Party will be extra keen to secure a consolation prize by regaining the traditionally Liberal seat.

Both Labor and Liberal recorded a sharp drop in primary vote from the 2018 election. Labor secured 32.92% of first preferences, down from 40.24% in 2018, while Liberal secured just 28.95%, a 12% drop from the 40.97% it received in 2018.
 
Most of this went to the National Party’s Brett Tessari, who secured 15.23% of the total.
 
This is only the second time the National Party has stood a candidate in the seat and there was uncertainty about how the presence of two Coalition candidates would affect the flow of votes.
 ​
Picture
The Nationals would have been hoping to make a bigger impact but the popularity of the local candidate, a three-time Bass Coast mayor, could not make up for the lack of brand recognition of the party in the Bass electorate.
 
In line with the statewide vote, Greens candidate Callum Bugbird recorded a swing of 2.22%, taking the party’s local vote to 7.91%.
 
The two independent candidates did not make much impact – community independent Jeni Jobe got 2.68% and conservative independent Meg Edwards, who stood in protest again the Labor Government’s plans for offshore wind farms off the Gippsland Coast, got 2.32%.
 
Of the minor parties, Labour DLP did best with 3.18%, followed by Family First with 2.49%, the Animal Justice Party with 2.36% and the Freedom Party with 1.97%.
 
Bass is an electorate of two halves, with the southern part encompassing the whole of the Bass Coast Shire and the northern part taking in rural villages and the outer suburban Cranbourne South and the disparity was obvious in the booth results.
 
The rural booths of Bass, Bayles, Blind Bight, Catani, Devon Meadows, Koo Wee Rup, Lang Lang and Tooradin were strongly pro-Liberal.
 
The Bass Coast booths of Cowes, Wonthaggi, Wonthaggi North, Inverloch, Newhaven, Corinella and Cape Paterson were strongly pro-Labor.
 
Labor did well with the early votes (8057 to the Liberal Party’s 7340) but postal votes heavily favoured the Liberal Party.  Around 5% of votes were invalid.

Two party preferred by voting booth
Picture
19 Comments
Stephen Wilbourne
27/11/2022 10:51:58 am

Thank you for your excellent local pre-poll and post-poll coverage. It is greatly appreciated.

Reply
Brian Carr link
27/11/2022 10:57:53 am

Great news, Jordan has done so much for the area for a long time, not just during the election campaign.

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Lyn Bennett
27/11/2022 11:38:20 am

I don’t think this is a true representation of the informal votes - too many booths ran out of ballot papers and would be voters were told that their names would be checked off and they did not have to vote and would not be fined. The dedicated voter travelled to others booths but how many just went home?
With such a tight outcome this is very disturbing. Not good enough VEC.

Reply
Brian Carr link
27/11/2022 12:23:56 pm

That's such a bad oversight, surely it's better to oversupply ? it's only sheets of paper after all, and the whole reason of holding the ballot is to determine the voting intentions of all possible electors.

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Mike Tesch
27/11/2022 11:49:48 am

Thanks for your optimism, but these are figures from last night. With only 67% of the votes counted, it is still too close to close. I'm waiting for more informed sources to give it to Jordan before I celebrate.

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Catherine Watson, editor
27/11/2022 02:32:13 pm

You're absolutely right, Mike. The ABC called it last night - Labor retains Bass - but looking at it again it's obviously premature. I've reworded to a more cautious approach. Could be a couple of days before we know.
What an election! We knew it would be close but who would have predicted this.

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Pete Muskens
27/11/2022 03:55:17 pm

Yes - what a result indeed. Jordan’s done well to retain those votes. I just hope she takes to heart the planning and environmental issues that are close to many Bass Coast residents’ hearts. The outlook is still not good for the woodlands or Cape Paterson.

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Sue Saliba
27/11/2022 05:33:57 pm

If Jordan does get across the line, I hope she acknowledges that she would not have a seat in Parliament without the preferences from the Greens, AJP and a local independent, all of whom strongly support full protection of Western Port Woodlands.

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Sue C
30/11/2022 09:18:00 pm

I agree Sue. The Greens are still not taken seriously by the 2 major parties. But if Jordan wins the seat it will be because of the Green vote and its policies of caring for the environment, the wildlife and social justice.Bass Coast is becoming urbanised too quickly. The destruction of our vegetation is occurring daily, hence our precious wildlife and endangered species is disappearing far too rapidly. If Jordan gets back in, it would be to her advantage to listen and take seriously our concerns about environmental vandalism occurring daily. Well done Callum.

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Mark Robertson
27/11/2022 08:25:29 pm

Well said Sue, as always, concerned with the future of our threatened ecosystems.

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Geoff Ellis
28/11/2022 09:48:55 am

This morning ABC radio reported that Bass District was too close call.

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Meg Edwards link
28/11/2022 10:47:21 am

Bass was always down to preferences. Well done everyone for having the courage to stand.

Reply
Shaz Green
28/11/2022 11:29:08 am

Interested to note the “ A 2.03% swing to the Liberal Party in Bass” statement without any commentary regarding the redistributed boundaries that many expected would make this an LNP seat.

Reply
Natasha
28/11/2022 11:57:50 am

Wow. Very exciting! This morning - Monday - ABC radio reported that Bass District was too close to call. There are still a lot of votes to be counted and with it being so close, many factors are to be carefully considered. The front heading should be reworded as it’s inaccurate.

Reply
Yvonne McRae
28/11/2022 12:30:21 pm

Fingers crossed for Jordan, still too close to call. But if re-elected Jordan must be more upfront and outspoken re the environment, especially the sand mining, woodlands destruction, pollution of our oceans (gas drilling etc.), and protection of our unique species. The Little Penguins fish in the waters the big gas corporations are targeting, and of course the import tankers into Westernport Bay. Homo sapiens seem determined to ruin our planet for future generations. There is no Planet B.

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Keith Finney
29/11/2022 07:24:30 pm

I'm confused. According to VEC figures, and reading the commentary above, it suggests over 30% of the eligible Bass Coast population was either prevented from voting (as in my case) or chose not to vote. Is anyone able to find out the number of "excused voters"? I have been expecting to see the number of votes counted increase for many days - is any counting going on?

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Frank W Schooneveldt
30/11/2022 07:10:29 am

Hi Keith,
Counting of the votes is continuing. VEC reported at 9.14pm last night that 70.77% of the votes have been counted with the gap between Jordan and Aron narrowed to 53 votes. I hope Jordan wins but it’s in the lap of the gods. I expect a final result by Friday.
Cheers

Reply
Catherine Watson, Editor
30/11/2022 10:46:29 am

According to the VEC, there's a way to go yet: "A result in close seats will not be known until preference distributions are conducted from next Tuesday 6 December. This is because all eligible votes must be admitted to the count first, and rechecked. Postal votes posted before the close of voting can be received up until 6 pm Friday 2 December."

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Keith Finney
30/11/2022 11:37:06 am

So - to be clear - the change in two party preferred votes last night is is only as a result of votes directly placed to one of the two main canditates.

By my, rough, calculations Libs have been getting approximately 54% of the preferences, so if they get ahead, or even tie, on remaining votes Aaron Brown will win.

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